Prediction Market Cascade Analysis
Detecting probability shifts. Mapping correlated markets. Finding edge before the crowd.
Prediction markets don't reprice simultaneously. When "Trump tariffs on China this week" jumps from 40% to 65%, related markets — "China retaliatory tariffs by Sunday," "Fed emergency rate decision this week" — haven't moved yet.
That lag is the opportunity.
The shift that started it all.
e.g. "Trump tariffs this week" 40%->65%
Obvious causal links. Event siblings auto-included.
e.g. "China retaliates by Sunday"
Hidden connections. Where the real edge lives.
e.g. "Fed emergency rate this week"
TRIGGER: "Trump tariffs on China this week" jumps 40% -> 65%
All picks are real Polymarket questions expiring within 7 days. Bet before the cascade reprices them.
Not every price move is a real signal. The engine looks at how much money is behind a market to decide if a move matters.
These thresholds auto-tune based on historical performance when auto_tune is enabled.
Polymarket already groups related questions into events. We use that for free.
| TRIGGER | Trump tariffs this week | 65% |
| sibling | China retaliates by Sunday | 42% |
| sibling | Tariff exemptions Friday | 28% |
| sibling | Trade deal by month-end | 15% |
When the trigger belongs to an event, the engine automatically pulls sibling markets from that event.
These are pre-curated L2 candidates — Polymarket's editors already decided they're related. No AI needed.
The AI still finds L3 non-obvious picks from the broader catalog — connections that aren't in the same event.
Faster L2, smarter L3, lower cost.
Gemini 2.5 Flash — Summarizes what moved and why. Fast and cheap — the right tool for a quick briefing.
GPT-4o-mini — Scans 200 markets and filters to ~20 relevant ones. Costs 1/20th of what Claude would for the same job.
Claude Sonnet — Default strategist for the short list. Fast, cheap, and strong enough for most cascades — takes the routine shifts end-to-end.
Claude Opus — Escalates for high-liquidity or high-risk shifts. Extended-thinking mode finds the non-obvious L3 connections that humans and cheaper models miss.
AI can hallucinate — it might suggest a market that doesn't exist. The Auditor checks every single pick against live Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Yahoo Finance data:
Every recommendation is verified real and tradeable — never a hallucination.
Shifts ripple across asset types. The engine detects signals on one source
and finds correlated picks on others — before the market catches up.
4 market sources + 4 pre-movement signals (Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Yahoo Finance + RSS news, Bluesky social, whale trades, PM trade-velocity)
Crypto 60s · Stocks 30s · Prediction markets 60s · News 120s · Whales 180s · Social 300s · PM Velocity 300s (opt-in)
Two of four pre-movement signal sources (RSS news + Bluesky social shown here;
Polymarket whale trades and PM trade-velocity spikes use the same cascade).
These fire before Polymarket reprices — embedding-match headlines and posts
to the catalog, then run the shared Screener -> Strategist -> Auditor cascade.
10% take-profit on prediction markets (or hold to settlement via configurable hold strategies) · 3% take-profit · 3-4% stop-loss on crypto & stocks
The Strategist assigns a direction to every L2/L3 pick.
The Auditor then validates each pick and calculates the trade.
The engine believes the probability will go up (or the asset will increase in price).
Prediction markets: Buy Yes shares
Crypto/Stocks: Buy the asset (long)
The engine believes the probability will go down (or the asset will decrease in price).
Prediction markets: Buy No shares
Crypto/Stocks: Sell / short the asset
Picks with "mixed" direction are automatically skipped — no actionable trade without a clear signal.
| Buy | Yes shares (bullish) or No shares (bearish) |
| Profit | Shares pay $1 each if correct; lose investment if wrong |
| Exit | 10% take-profit, or hold to settlement |
| Buy | Yes or No contracts (same mechanics as Polymarket) |
| Profit | Contracts pay $1 each if correct; lose investment if wrong |
| Exit | 10% take-profit, or hold to settlement |
| Buy | Fractional coins at market price |
| P&L | Percentage-based (no $1 settlement) |
| Exit | +3% take-profit · -3% crypto / -4% stocks stop-loss |
| Buy | Fractional shares at market price |
| P&L | Percentage-based (no $1 settlement) |
| Exit | +3% take-profit · -3% crypto / -4% stocks stop-loss |
Kelly-sized per pick (legacy flat mode: $100/pick) · Prediction markets 10% TP (+ hold-to-settlement) · Crypto 3% TP / 3% SL · Stocks 3% TP / 4% SL
| Component | Per Shift | Monthly |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini (summary + relevance) | <$0.0002 | ~$0.02 |
| GPT-4o-mini (screener) | ~$0.0006 | ~$0.40 |
| Claude Sonnet (strategist, default) | ~$0.03 | ~$5-10 |
| Claude Opus (strategist, escalated) | ~$0.19 | ~$90-110 |
| Polymarket + Kalshi + Coinbase APIs | Free | $0 |
| Total | ~$95-110/mo |
Real cost logged per API call from SDK responses, visible on the History tab. Range depends on shift frequency (1-5 per day typical).
Detect a shift, analyze the cascade, and place bets — all before the crowd catches up.
Prediction Market Cascade Analysis
53 modules · 1955 tests · SQLite backend · Backtesting & auto-tuning · Nightly Strategist self-grading · Periodic GPT-4o-mini audit sweep
Watch one market. Predict the cascade. Bet on the ripple.