Prediction Market Cascade Analysis
Detecting probability shifts. Mapping correlated markets. Finding edge before the crowd.
Prediction markets don't reprice simultaneously. When "Trump tariffs on China this week" jumps from 40% to 65%, related markets — "China retaliatory tariffs by Sunday," "Fed emergency rate decision this week" — haven't moved yet.
That lag is the opportunity.
The shift that started it all.
e.g. "Trump tariffs this week" 40%->65%
Obvious causal links. Event siblings auto-included.
e.g. "China retaliates by Sunday"
Hidden connections. Where the real edge lives.
e.g. "Fed emergency rate this week"
TRIGGER: "Trump tariffs on China this week" jumps 40% -> 65%
All picks are real Polymarket questions expiring within 7 days. Bet before the cascade reprices them.
Not every price move is a real signal. The engine looks at how much money is behind a market to decide if a move matters.
Think of it like stock volume — a 5% move on Apple stock is news. A 5% move on a penny stock is Tuesday.
Polymarket already groups related questions into events. We use that for free.
| TRIGGER | Trump tariffs this week | 65% |
| sibling | China retaliates by Sunday | 42% |
| sibling | Tariff exemptions Friday | 28% |
| sibling | Trade deal by month-end | 15% |
When the trigger belongs to an event, the engine automatically pulls sibling markets from that event.
These are pre-curated L2 candidates — Polymarket's editors already decided they're related. No AI needed.
The AI still finds L3 non-obvious picks from the broader catalog — connections that aren't in the same event.
Faster L2, smarter L3, lower cost.
Gemini — Summarizes what moved and why. Fast and cheap — the right tool for a quick briefing.
GPT-4o-mini — Scans 200 markets and filters to ~20 relevant ones. Costs 1/20th of what Claude would for the same job.
Claude — Deep reasoning on the short list. Finds the non-obvious L3 connections that humans and cheaper models miss.
AI can hallucinate — it might suggest a market that doesn't exist. The Auditor checks every single pick against live Polymarket data:
Every recommendation is verified real and tradeable — never a hallucination.
Auto-refreshes every 10 seconds. Market card, trigger shift with opportunity metrics,
top pick recommendation, L1-L2-L3 layer cards, and Gemini/Claude summaries.
Audit validates every pick against live Polymarket. Watched markets track active positions.
Pick results show historical accuracy — price at pick vs final price, with win rate tracking.
| Component | Per Shift | Monthly |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini (summary) | ~$0.0001 | ~$0.03 |
| GPT-4o-mini (screener) | ~$0.002 | ~$0.45 |
| Claude Opus (strategist) | ~$0.08 | ~$24 |
| Polymarket + Kalshi APIs | Free | $0 |
| Total | ~$30-35/mo |
Both platforms polled. ~12-15 shifts/day with Opus. Sonnet cuts to ~$5-7/mo.
Detect a shift, analyze the cascade, and place bets — all before the crowd catches up.
Prediction Market Cascade Analysis
Watch one market. Predict the cascade. Bet on the ripple.